So we know that the polls factor in the Bradley Effect, but not the PUMA Effect. I have been telling everyone that will listen not to believe the polls because they HAVE NO IDEA what is going on, and when you add in WHO actually shows up to vote and in what numbers, once again, NOBODY KNOWS what is going to happen.
I have also been telling all the PUMAs I know that I do not believe we will actually know who the President is on November 5th due to ACORN, Voter Fraud, Voting Machine Failures…blah, blah, blah. It could be that middle of December b*llsh*t all over again. Given that, DO NOT BELIEVE WHAT CNN, MSNBO, ABC, NBC, or THE PRINTED WORD says about the exit polls…..and here is why…….
From John McCain’s Camp:
McCAIN CAMPAIGN MEMO: READING THE EXIT POLLS BILL McINTURFF, INTERNAL POLLSTER Mon Nov 03 2008 16:53:14 ET
As we have seen in previous election cycles, the exit poll results do leak early and that ends up influencing the coverage of the race before even the first state polls close at 6:00 PM Eastern.
However, we want to remind the campaign that the media’s own post-election study of the exit polls in 2004 showed that the exit polls overstate the Democratic candidate’s support. Therefore, we would discourage a rush to judgment based on the exit polls and wait until there has been a representative sampling of actual tabulated results from a variety of counties and precincts in a state.
Here are the key points to keep in mind when the exit poll data starts being leaked:
1. Historically, exit polls have tended to overstate the Democratic vote.
2. The exit polls are likely to overstate the Obama vote because Obama voters are more likely to participate in the exit poll.
3. The exit polls have tended to skew most Democratic in years where there is high turnout and high vote interest like in 1992 and 2004.
4. It is not just the national exit poll that skews Democratic, but each of the state exit polls also suffers from the same Democratic leanings.
5. The results of the exit polls are also influenced by the demographics of the voters who conduct the exit polls.
After the 2004 election, the National Election Pool completed a study investigating why the exit polls that year showed John Kerry over performing 5.5 net points better than the actual results showed him to have done. Their conclusion was that the primary reason the exit polls was that Kerry voters and Democrats were more likely to participate in the exit polls.
“Our investigation of the differences between the exit poll estimates and the actual vote count point to one primary reason: in a number of precincts a higher than average Within Precinct Error most likely due to Kerry voters participating in the exit polls at a higher rate than Bush voters. There has been partisan overstatements in previous elections, more often overstating the Democrat, but occasionally overstating the Republican.
We believe that this will hold true this year. The recent Fox News survey showed that 46% of Obama voters said they were very likely to participate in the exit polls, while just 35% of McCain supporters are.
In fact, even the 2004 exit poll report noted that higher turnout nationally and higher levels of voter interest in both 1992 and 2004 correlated with greater Within Precinct Error.
The overstating of the Democratic vote did not only occur in the national exit polls, but also occurred in the state exit polls. The 2004 exit poll report cited that the Kerry vote was overstated by more than one standard error in 26 states, while the Bush vote was overstated in just four states. So we should also expect the individual state exit polls on Tuesday to be more Democratic as well.
So given that turnout is expected to be even higher than 2004 and that Democrats are more likely to participate in the exit polls, this means we should expect greater fluctuation and variation in the exit polls from the actual election results.
The 2004 exit poll report also showed that the greatest error in the exit poll came in precincts where the interviewer was younger. The completion rates were lower and the refusal rates and Within Precinct Error was higher when the interviewers were under the age of 35. Complicating this is that nearly half the interviewers were under the age of 35, including 35% who were 18-24 and another 15% were 25-34.
Based on the previous exit poll results, we should expect once again that Tuesday’s exit poll data could overstate the Obama vote and under represent the McCain vote.
It is important that the campaign make sure the media realizes this, so that when the exit polls do leak, people do not overreact to the early exit poll data. Rather than looking at the exit polls, we should wait until we start seeing actual election results from key precincts and counties to gauge who won the election.
Investor’s Business Daily WAS the most accurate poll during the 2004 Election. This is the poll, (and the AOL Straw Poll), that I have been watching for WEEKS. This poll is the reason that I have been telling other Pumas for at least a week that I am convinced John McCain is going to win this election and everybody better get ready for Really.Incredibly.Stupid.Maneuvers from the Borg Collection – i.e. more violence.
Here is the IBD Tracking Poll for today, go here to check out the rest of the polling.
November 2, 2008
Day 21: IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll
The race tightened again Sunday as independents who’d been leaning to Obama shifted to McCain to leave that key group a toss-up. McCain also pulled even in the Midwest, moved back into the lead with men, padded his gains among Protestants and Catholics, and is favored for the first time by high school graduates.
Earlier today, I thought it was time to write this post about ignoring the polls and not letting the Borg Collective get you down with their second wave of voter suppression tactics. I spoke with a couple of friends that are in the thick of the fight and are getting worn down by “All Obama, All The Time”. This evening, lo and behold, the collective unconscious is operating at light speed. American Thinker has just posted an excellent article about this very subject, and I could not have done a better job if I tried. I have shameless reprinted the article. I am sure American Thinker will get back to me if there is a problem.
Now today, we have a new video showing the internal polls in PA are still really close even though the external national polls show Obama ahead by 10pts. The only reason that Team Obama has descended on Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida is because the numbers are quite a bit closer than the polls are showing. I wonder how many people are saying they will vote Obama and won’t, and I wonder how many former HRC supporters aren’t even getting polling calls?
To paraphrase Sean Hannity, “let your hearts not be troubled”.
Does quoting Sean Hannity make me a right wing republican? Some would say yes, but my readers know better; I am non-partisan and shop for the best candidate when it comes to elections. I also do my homework; as should we all. I do not believe that Barack Obama is winning; in fact, I believe he is losing and that is why he is off to Hawaii to cover his bases and Mishy is campaigning instead of being at Grandma’s deathbed.
Earlier today, I thought it was time to write this post about ignoring the polls and not letting the Borg Collective get you down with their second wave of voter suppression tactics. I spoke with a couple of friends that are in the thick of the fight and are getting worn down by “All Obama, All The Time”. This evening, lo and behold, the collective unconcious is operating at light speed. American Thinker has just posted an excellent article about this very subject, and I could not have done a better job if I tried. I have shameless reprinted the article. I am sure American Thinker will get back to me if there is a problem.
Despite there being an entire cottage industry devoted to exposing the liberal bias of the mainstream media, Republicans and conservatives continue to allow themselves to be unduly influenced, and even demoralized, by what they read and hear in the big city newspapers and on network television.
Yes, PUMAS, You Know Better! Did we not go thru the primaries with this kind of inundation happening? Did they not tell her to quit a bazillion times. Have they not told Sarah to quit also?
What are they reading and hearing? That Barack Obama will be the next President of the United States. It’s inevitable. It’s his election to lose. What proof does the media offer? Public opinion polls that supposedly show Obama “winning” the race. (But see here and here.) The thousands of devoted supporters who attend Obama’s rallies. The legions of blacks and young people who are more “inspired” than ever to vote for a candidate who understands their needs and interests. Etc. We all know the story by heart by now.
This is the “narrative” that the mainstream media has been imposing on this year’s presidential campaign almost from the start. Remember how quickly the MSM jumped off the Hillary Clinton bandwagon and onto Obama’s? Remember how annoyed and angry they became as Hillary refused to concede the nomination? The MSM decided that electing the nation’s first black, socialist, anti-American president was politically and historically more important (and, for them, more exciting) than electing the nation’s first female, socialist, patriotic president. And they are doing everything they can to achieve this goal. (emphasis mine.)
Well, there is another story out there that the MSM refuses to address. A huge story. One that could, and I think will, significantly affect the outcome of this race. I’m referring to the widespread phenomenon of registered Democrats openly supporting John McCain. There are numerous “Democrats for McCain” type organizations. There are numerous websites and blogs written by Democrats touting McCain’s candidacy. There are pro-McCain grassroots efforts being led by Democrats. And we all know friends or relatives who are Democrats, who voted for John Kerry in 2004, and who are no fans of President Bush – but who are going to vote for John McCain this year.
Yet, surprise surprise, the mainstream media is not talking about these voters, not talking about the real rift that is occurring within the ranks of the Democratic Party. Needless to say, if a similar rift were occurring in the Republican Party, it would be treated as the major story that it is. (Indeed, as such stories about the political fault lines in the Republican Party have been treated in the recent past.)
The MSM is not talking about Obama only having 80% of the Dem base voting for him. This assures his loss.
Who are these pro-McCain Democratic voters? They overwhelmingly tend to be former Hillary supporters. Perhaps the most well-known of these voters are the “PUMAs” – which stands for Party Unity My Ass. These are Hillary supporters who are adamantly opposed to Obama. Let’s not forget that during the Democratic primaries – real elections, not polls – Hillary crushed Obama among white working-class and middle-class voters in such key states as Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. If a meaningful number of these voters end up voting for McCain, as I predict they will, then Obama’s smooth road to the White House is going to run smack into a brick wall.
Remember NH when Obama was ahead in the polls by 10 points and lost by 2?
Earlier this week, I attended a John McCain campaign event in New York City. There were several Democrats in attendance. Not only people who are registered Democrats, but party leaders and workers who had been actively involved in Hillary Clinton’s campaign. Indeed, the gentlemen who “keynoted” the event was a former publisher of the left-wing Village Voice magazine and a veteran of the Robert Kennedy, George McGovern, and Jimmy Carter campaigns. Hardly a right-wing conservative. He gave one of the best stump speeches I have heard why Barack Obama should not be elected president. (It comes down to not trusting Obama to keep the United States safe and strong in a dangerous world and rejecting Obama’s “government knows best” attitude when it comes to domestic issues.) Another person I met at the event was a sprightly elderly woman who manned telephones for Hillary for five months, and now is supporting McCain.
There is nothing remotely similar to this taking place among Republicans. (No, Christopher Buckley endorsing Obama is not the same thing at all.)
Some more anecdotal evidence of a lack of support for Obama among Democrats: I live in the Upper West Side neighborhood of New York City. You cannot find too many places in the country that are more liberal than that. Walking around my neighborhood during the 2004 presidential campaign, I felt “assaulted” on all sides by Kerry-Edwards buttons, bumper stickers, and posters. This year, there clearly is not the same level of outward support for Obama. It is remarkable (and welcome). Will most of the people in my neighborhood vote for Obama on election day? Of course. Will Obama win New York? Almost certainly. But the lack of enthusiasm for Obama among these Democrats, who I’m sure would be going gaga for Hillary, speaks volumes about Obama’s true prospects for victory this year.
The point is simple: Don’t believe the Obama hype coming out of the mainstream media. If the media were truly objective and unbiased, they would be covering the race much differently. Instead of trying to browbeat the country into voting for Obama, they would be analyzing the issues and factors that favor and disfavor both candidates. Instead of focusing on college students and intellectuals, they would be focusing on working-class and middle-class voters, especially “Hillary Democrats.” These voters may very well determine the election. Yet this huge story is being ignored by the MSM.
Furthermore, the media would not so consistently confuse intensity of support for breadth of support. Granted, Barack Obama’s supporters tend to be more enthusiastic about their candidate than John McCain’s supporters are about him. Leftists are always looking for their earthly messiah. But this does not mean that Obama’s supporters, come election day, will outnumber McCain’s. Whether in support of McCain or in opposition to Obama, I predict these voters will go to the polls. Contrary to the wishful thinking of Democratic pundits, they are not staying home. These voters may be unexcited, but they are not apathetic. And 51% of “unexcited” voters will defeat 49% of even the most “inspired” voters. Every time.
Of course, we all know what the mainstream media’s “narrative” will be if (I believe, when) John McCain wins the election: The American people refused to vote for Obama because of the color of his skin (and not because of the content of his politics). The “right-wing attack machine” scared voters into voting for McCain, even against their own social and economic self-interest. Black and poor voters were intimidated by Republican thugs and prevented from voting. We know this story by heart as well.
So be prepared. In a few more weeks, the political environment in this country is likely to become a heckuva lot nastier. For there are real signs pointing to a McCain victory this year, whether or not the mainstream media wants to acknowledge them.
I have read in various blogs ranging from PUMA to Conservative Republican that a vacation in the country for a week starting with election day might be a really good idea. I live in a small town where people are too busy surfing and fishing to bother with violence. Mainland? Not so much….