The Federal Reserve says it could be five to six years before we return to normal growth.
That’s according to Fed officials in the central bank’s latest economic forecast.
They expect unemployment, now 10.2 percent, to remain in a range of 6.8 to 7.5 percent through 2012.
“Business contacts reported that they would be cautious in their hiring and would continue to aggressively seek cost savings,” Fed officials said in minutes from their most recent policy meeting.
Businesses would be able to meet any increases in demand in the near term by raising their employees’ hours and boosting productivity, thus delaying the need to add to their payrolls,” the officials said.
“It is a slow-motion recovery,” Stuart Hoffman, chief economist at PNC Financial Services Group, told The Washington Post.
“It sure doesn’t look like the beginning of a normal, rapid recovery.”
Economist David Rosenberg is even more pessimistic.
We’re in a form of depression,” Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff Associates, Inc., a Toronto wealth management firm, told CNBC.
“Depressions . . . typically happen after a prolonged period of credit excess morphs into a collapse, and you get asset deflation. We had asset deflation, and we had a contraction in private-sector credit.”
Billionaire George Soros believes a “bloodletting” may be in the offing for leveraged buyout firms (LBOs) and commercial real estate investors amid the worst economy in seven decades.
“In commercial real estate and leveraged buyouts, the bloodletting is yet to come,” Soros said in a speech in Europe, reported by Bloomberg News.
“These factors will continue to weigh on the American economy, and the American consumer will no longer be able to serve as the motor for the world economy.”
via @LogisticMonster Fed Officials “Living In My Little Pony World” Give A Time.. http://bit.ly/6MNAnF
Ron on November 26, 2009 at 7:41 pm
Gold should continue to go up through most of the first half of 2010 but I wouldn’t hold it past mid-year. The dollar should hit bottom in the second quarter, CQ2 ’10. Quantitative easing will come to a gradual end and liquidity will slowly dry up. The dollar should begin to strengthen and the stock market should start to decline by mid to late summer. H2 ’10 won’t be pretty. The stock market will start to sync up with the bad economy which could once again go into recession as GDP slides into negative territory. There will be a lot of stock selling in anticipation of tax increases in 2011.
Interest rates should begin to rise in 2011 as the unemployment rate slowly improves. There will be an unwinding of the carry trade but it’ll start to unwind the moment the dollar starts to strengthen.
There is a wild card. Iran. If Iran is attacked, oil will soar, the dollar will drop, and gold will zoom up but it’ll be a short lived event, IMO.
Ron on November 26, 2009 at 8:46 pm
Of course, Krugman has a different take on the Fed minutes:
BTW, look for Black Friday to take on a different connotation due to a really bad day in the stock market. Gold should zoom up on a weaker dollar and fears of a Dubai default.
Ron on November 26, 2009 at 9:13 pm
Dubai struggles to ease default fears – The Globe and Mail
Dubai Debt Troubles Push Down Stocks in U.S and Asia
Wall Street turned sharply lower at the open on Friday, as traders scrambled to play catch-up after sharp downturns in Asian and European markets over the Thanksgiving holiday.
via @LogisticMonster Fed Officials “Living In My Little Pony World” Give A Time.. http://bit.ly/6MNAnF
Gold should continue to go up through most of the first half of 2010 but I wouldn’t hold it past mid-year. The dollar should hit bottom in the second quarter, CQ2 ’10. Quantitative easing will come to a gradual end and liquidity will slowly dry up. The dollar should begin to strengthen and the stock market should start to decline by mid to late summer. H2 ’10 won’t be pretty. The stock market will start to sync up with the bad economy which could once again go into recession as GDP slides into negative territory. There will be a lot of stock selling in anticipation of tax increases in 2011.
Interest rates should begin to rise in 2011 as the unemployment rate slowly improves. There will be an unwinding of the carry trade but it’ll start to unwind the moment the dollar starts to strengthen.
There is a wild card. Iran. If Iran is attacked, oil will soar, the dollar will drop, and gold will zoom up but it’ll be a short lived event, IMO.
Of course, Krugman has a different take on the Fed minutes:
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/11/25/no-exit/
BTW, look for Black Friday to take on a different connotation due to a really bad day in the stock market. Gold should zoom up on a weaker dollar and fears of a Dubai default.
Dubai struggles to ease default fears – The Globe and Mail
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/dubai-strives-to-ease-default-fears/article1378116/
one more that I was reading Ron:
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/markets/the_gulf/article6934261.ece
Ron gets all the gold stars as the stock market gets pushed down because of Dubai:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/28/business/28markets.html?_r=1&hp&emc=na
Today Is Black Friday, The Gift That Keeps On Giving.
http://youhavetobethistalltogoonthisride.blogspot.com/2009/11/tgif-circus-life-black-friday.html
Right because we should base a huge economy like ours on 2/3 consumerism. That is what keeps this economy going us buying crap.
When did we get this far out of whack with our values? Or have we? The message from the message makers and message shapers Shop till you drop.