Numbers Do Not Lie

I, and other bloggers like me, have been accused of “nit-picking” the idiot child that is now in the White House (when he isn’t taking the weekend off for “date-night” with Mishy in Chicago), and not giving him the benefit of the doubt.  We all know the spending bill that the out-of-touch congressional majority just passed is not going to help our economy, in fact, we pretty much agree with the CBO that it is going to flatten our economy in the long run, but here is where the numbers do not lie.  Take the time to read it and do not get overwhelmed by the numbers.  Mr. Schiller has broken it down nicely.

Obama’s Rhetoric Is the Real ‘Catastrophe’

President Barack Obama has turned fearmongering into an art form. He has repeatedly raised the specter of another Great Depression. First, he did so to win votes in the November election. He has done so again recently to sway congressional votes for his stimulus package.

In his remarks, every gloomy statistic on the economy becomes a harbinger of doom. As he tells it, today’s economy is the worst since the Great Depression. Without his Recovery and Reinvestment Act, he says, the economy will fall back into that abyss and may never recover.

This fearmongering may be good politics, but it is bad history and bad economics. It is bad history because our current economic woes don’t come close to those of the 1930s. At worst, a comparison to the 1981-82 recession might be appropriate. Consider the job losses that Mr. Obama always cites. In the last year, the U.S. economy shed 3.4 million jobs. That’s a grim statistic for sure, but represents just 2.2% of the labor force. From November 1981 to October 1982, 2.4 million jobs were lost — fewer in number than today, but the labor force was smaller. So 1981-82 job losses totaled 2.2% of the labor force, the same as now.

Job losses in the Great Depression were of an entirely different magnitude. In 1930, the economy shed 4.8% of the labor force. In 1931, 6.5%. And then in 1932, another 7.1%. Jobs were being lost at double or triple the rate of 2008-09 or 1981-82.

This was reflected in unemployment rates. The latest survey pegs U.S. unemployment at 7.6%. That’s more than three percentage points below the 1982 peak (10.8%) and not even a third of the peak in 1932 (25.2%). You simply can’t equate 7.6% unemployment with the Great Depression.

Other economic statistics also dispel any analogy between today’s economic woes and the Great Depression. Real gross domestic product (GDP) rose in 2008, despite a bad fourth quarter. The Congressional Budget Office projects a GDP decline of 2% in 2009. That’s comparable to 1982, when GDP contracted by 1.9%. It is nothing like 1930, when GDP fell by 9%, or 1931, when GDP contracted by another 8%, or 1932, when it fell yet another 13%.

I wanted to reprint this whole article, but that’s against the rules.  Go to the link above to finish reading this short, sweet, and to the point article about why, at least, the numbers are not lying.

Didn’t I just read somewhere that consumer spending went up last month?

8 thoughts on “Numbers Do Not Lie”

  1. I read it this morning. And the numbers don’t lie. I do see an unemployment rate above 10% but only by a point or two but nothing compared to the Depression.

  2. It is joannemor@blogster.com I believe. There are several of you out there that are doing all the work on investigating Obama, since actual reporters refuse to do so. I wish all of you would get together and publish something connecting all the dots so that people could see what is going on. There has to be someone out there who has information on what Obama was doing at Occidental. He so desperately wants to keep that hidden there has got to be something to it.

  3. O.K. if you go to Blogster.com and then in the search engine put JoAnneMor and then click the username search she comes right up.

  4. Take comfort, Tim. There are those of us who are so computer ignorant they can’t even post to their own blogs anymore.

    Something happened with my settings & I cannot figure it out. So, I just spend my time now reading Logistics Monster, & annoying Diamond with my silly comments :).

    BTW, Diamond, if I haven’t said so lately, I appreciate all you do.

    God bless America!

  5. Got your web page again – I don’t know what was wrong ther for a while.

    IMO the “One” tries “the sky is falling” thing to keep people so rattled that they don’t pay atention to what he is really doing, which is taking us down the road to complete domination by the government under his rules.

    On Wednesday he is supposed to sign the stimulus bill and give us his plans for the next step – the toxic mortgages, etc. that was supposed to be taken care of by the first bail-out. If the people are allowed to stay in their homes I wonder who will own them? The people or the government?

  6. Tim – checked it out…cannot leave a comment on her page. Too bad – wanted to invite her over here for a bit. And Tim, everybody is technically ignorant until they become technically proficient. Take me – hadn’t been on a computer for about 5 years until a year ago; realized that I had better catch up before I was left behind.

    American Genie – email me your phone number and I will help you with your blog if you like.

    For all my loyal readers – stay tuned – The Monster is doing a blogtalk radio interview this coming Saturday.

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